Economic Survey released before Budget : Points

Indian economy is expected to witness real GDP expansion of 9.2% in 2021-22. Agriculture and allied sectors have been the least impacted by the pandemic and the sector is expected to grow by 3.9% GVA of Industry (including mining and construction) will rise by 11.8%.

Indian economy is in a good position to witness GDP growth of 8.0-8.5% in 2022-23. Foreign exchange reserves at US$ 634 bn on 31st Dec 2021. This is equivalent to 13.2 months of merchandise imports & is higher than the country’s external debt India’s CPI inflation at 5.6%

Economic output surpasses pre-covid levels. Agricultural sector was the least impacted by the pandemic-related disruptions. Revival in the Indian residential real market in 2021 in terms of growth in sales, prices and new launches.

Hotel occupancy rate has recovered substantially, reaching 56-58% in October 2021, from 30-32% in April 2021. Boom in software & IT-enabled services exports even as earnings from tourism have declined sharply. Government consumption is estimated to grow by a strong 7.6%.

Investment to GDP ratio to 29.6% in 2021-22, the highest in seven years. Private investment recovery is still at a nascent stage, there are many signals which indicate that India is poised for stronger investment. Investor sentiment in manufacturing at all time high.

India’s total exports are expected to grow by 16.5% in 2021-22 surpassing pre-pandemic levels. Imports are expected to grow by 29.4%

Out of an ambitious export target of US$ 400 billion set for 2021-22, India has already attained more than 75 per cent of it by exporting goods worth US$ 301.4 billion. 40 per cent of India’s exports is still accounted to only seven countries.

The gross monthly GST collections have crossed ` 1 lakh crore consistently since July 2021. The fiscal deficit for April-November 2021 has been contained at 46.2% of Budget Estimates (BE) 89,066 crore was raised via 75 IPO issues in April- November 2021.

Indirect tax receipts have registered a YoY growth of 38.6% in the first eight months. Gross GST collections, Centre and States taken together, were `10.74 lakh crore during Apr to Dec 2021

Disinvestment target was 1.75 lac crs. Govt was able to mobilise only Rs 9330 crs so far. Total expenditure of the Government increased by 8.8% during April to Nov 2021 and stood at 59.6% of Budget Estimate. Expenditure on major subsidies stood at 2.31 lakh crore.

India’s ranking in Global Innovation Index has climbed 35 ranks, from 81st in 2015-16 to 46th in 2021. Gross enrolment ratio in higher education recorded at 27.1 percent in 2019-20, was slightly higher from 26.3 percent in 2018-19.

It is estimated that over the period of five years, the PLI Scheme for Textiles will lead to fresh investment of Rs.19,000 crs, cumulative turnover of over Rs.3 lakh crs, create additional employment opportunities of more than 7.5 lakh jobs in this sector.

Despite the push for renewables, as per the Draft National Energy Policy of Niti Aayog, the demand for coal is expected to remain in the range of 1.3-1.5 Billion Tonnes by 2030. 28 coal mines have been successfully auctioned. Auction process for 88 coal mines is underway.

One Nation One Ration Card progress - the facility of national/inter-State portability is enabled in 34 States covering nearly 75 cr beneficiaries (94.3 % of total target) The Government set 20% ethanol blending target for mixing ethanol with petrol to be achieved by 2025.

In December alone 4.6 billion transactions worth `8.26 lakh crore were carried out by UPI. Total assets of NBFCs increased from `36.37 lakh crore in September 2020 to `42.05 lakh crore in September 2021, resulting in YoY growth of 15.61%

Source : https;//twitter,com/lalitinvestor

Inflation

 Its a forwarded message received : Source unknown

Inflation was never a Problem Before Like it is Now. It is at 40-years High of 7% - Nearly 4 times above the Fed's Target of 2%( Actual Inflation might Be in Double Digits Above 10%) Stock Market were Never as humongous overvalued before as they are Now. Refer Market cap/Gdp Ratio. Just like Mother Nature , Economics and Stock Market Should be Allowed to function freely. Else we see the Earthquakes and Tsunamis. FED cannot Print endlessly and Make people Rich, This will have an ugly End.

Japan is 30% Below its 1989 Highs- More than three Decades Investors waiting to get back the invested money  !!  China is 45% below its 2007 Highs - More than a decade and Investors do not even have 50% Left of What they Invested  !! 

If the above is not an eye Opener - I wonder What  !! 

Those Who are arguing about the Bright Future of Indian Economy, potential Growth etc Bla Bla - Remember China and Japan were not Somalian or Sudan  !!  Next Such Markets can Very Well be Indian or Even the United States(Most Likely)  !!  Some Folks will Curse Stock Market in Few Months . The cycle Never Change, Even The Participants do not Change Greed Kills  The Same Crowd Over And Again. 

Its a forwarded message received : Source unknown

The new Silver Story

 Silver is coming into the limelight for the past few weeks. Three major fund houses started Silver ETFs after SEBI amended rules to introduce it. So will you make it as a part of your portfolio? 

The prime objective of adding it into your portfolio is to diversify your portfolio and hence it should have lower correlation with other asset classes such as equity and bond. But..

Silver in the last 40 years generated negative annualized return of 1.14% in $ terms. Most of the rise are in lumps and is not constant. Silver has maximum drawdown of 90% in the past and annualized volatility of arounf 25%. What it means? It reflect high risk nature. Its very cyclical in nature and only very experienced investors or traders can understand the nature. So if you don't know, better avoid.